Short Sale, Foreclosure and Strategic Default

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Saturday, June 23, 2007

When does a real estate market turn?

It has been reported at the recent Bank of America Homebuilders conference the CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises said the following.

When asked about the signs he would be look to to indicate a turning point in the decline Hovnanian responded:

“Well clearly, one of the things we are much more focused on then we ever were before is MLS listings in a given market. That is a dynamic that’s changed, we’re tracking it in every market. At the moment, unfortunately, most markets are showing negative signs in terms of the increasing MLS listings and lower monthly sales every month. ”

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this is interesting that it is a new dynamic for him. Real Estate agents have been taking about it for 3 years. We look at supply and demand to determine (novel idea?) - buyers, balanced and sellers markets. I noticed the market changed from buyers to sellers in Sarasota, Bradenton and Lakewood Ranch within in a few weeks of President Bush announcing that his blue Ribbon committee suggested a change to the home mortgage deduction. During the height of the bubble where houses were going up 10% a month we had about 40 "sales" ( I use pending and backups needed so I do not have to wait a month for "sale" data) and 40 properties "active". Now we have over 600 homes listed in our area and recently we popped up from about 20-22 sales going pending and backup needed to 45.

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