Short Sale, Foreclosure and Strategic Default

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Thursday, January 7, 2010

Commercial real estate workouts

This is a very optimistic article. 
I wonder why they would ignore the fact that many of these upside down properties loans are coming due this year and that there is no way they can refinance? 

Commercial real estate recovery not seen until 2011 - JSOnline
The commercial real estate industry, faced with filling empty offices and stores while the nation's unemployment rate hovers above 10%, won't begin its recovery until 2011, according to a forecast released Monday.

But, at least the industry's decline in 2010 will be less severe than its drop in 2009, according to the forecast by Grubb & Ellis Co., a national real estate services firm that includes Brookfield-based Apex Commercial Inc. among its affiliates.

"The national economy has begun a slow and cautious recovery, but the labor market, which often lags the broader economy, will turn around only gradually with sustained improvement unlikely before the second half of 2010. Because commercial real estate lags the labor market, it still has a ways to go before reaching its own low point," said Bob Bach, the firm's senior vice president and chief economist.

"The good news is that the freefall we saw in 2009 is over and the future is more certain, giving owners and users of real estate the confidence to begin making decisions again," Bach said in a statement.

The national office market's vacancy rate is expected to reach 18.5% to 19% by the end of 2010, the highest since Grubb & Ellis began tracking the national market in 1986. Slow job growth will delay improvement in the office market, Bach said.


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